How is the weather?

Some time ago, a government spent tons of money and time on a weather prediction satellite. After some years, they finally – and successfully – launched it and started to gather some data. A couple of months later, they analysed the results and noticed that the accuracy of the weather forecast was around 70%.

During those two months, there was a guy who was taking notes every day on how the weather was. After two months, he identified that today’s weather is likely to be the same as yesterday’s. And that likeliness is…70% as well.

This XP term is useful when understanding how much work you can commit to and also helpful for identifying what you can accomplish in the future.

Think for a second when you are planning your study for an exam. You divide it into: reading 50 pages and answering 40 test questions per day. When you start, you find out the topic is more complicated than you expected so you only manage to review 37 pages and do 25 test questions per day. Why do you keep telling yourself that you will study 50 pages tomorrow?

On the other side, we have the moral of the story. There’s always a cheaper and faster way to reach your goals. What’s necessary is to know how you want to measure success and focus on the smallest thing you can do to get there. Anyway, we can leave this topic for another post as there’s much to say.

To sum up, remember that what you’ll be able to do tomorrow might be similar in amount to what you accomplished today. That means that for tomorrow I guess the weather in Barcelona will be cloudy, as today.

Antonio González


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